Euler Hermes raises Mediterranean economic trends and the GCC countries, the Italian export opportunities

  Mediterranean and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Economic trends and their implications for the Italian export products were highlighted at a press conference in Milan last July 16, which hosted by global and regional leader Euler Hermes.

The analysis is a first sketch of a more comprehensive regional study, the company will be released this fall.

Wilfried Verstraete, Chairman of Euler Hermes Group, said that the growth of world GDP at the end of the year would be lower than earlier forecast of 2.4%, before rising slightly in 2014 to 3.1%. While emerging markets remain the engine of global growth for 2013 and 2014, 4.4% and 4.9%, he warned that the slowdown in the overall Asian growth markets and sharper than in 2013, the euro-zone GDP expected to increase contractions dynamic global failures (8% in 2013, 2% in 2014).

According to Michele Pignotti, head of the Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa, "sustainable economic growth and a high degree of openness to trade, the Middle East and GCC are a key sector for the growth of Italian exports. Construction, energy, machinery and textiles are the main export sectors, but it can also increase the risk of emerging non-payments in some areas,., we recorded an increase to three locations in Turkey mid-fiscal year 2013. "

Presentation of preliminary results of the baseline survey of the Mediterranean, addressed Ludovic Subran, Euler Hermes Chief Economist, two central themes:

A Mediterranean sea of ​​possibilities, but the tide against wind and wave warnings are still

Mediterranean regional growth through the three speeds "old Europe," future Arab Champions ("Abtal") and Asian groups have defined "gateway". In 2013, the general regional economic growth of 0.4% to 1 7% is expected in 2014 with a differing growth rates between "Old Europe" (-1.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014) and the rest of the region (+3.5% and 4 strengthen, 1%). The centers of trade and logistics remain while advanced economies in the region, the growth dynamics, opportunities and risks vary significantly intra-region.

Could increase increased domestic investment as a percentage of regional GDP growth Mediterranean in general. Could create a potential increase in purchasing power in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) - growth of the middle classes - especially in the GCC countries, Morocco and Turkey. However, the ongoing economic limbo in the euro zone would have a negative influence in the region, and the uncertainty of the political, social and consumer demand in the MENA and GCC are important factors in the business environment.

• If countries "old Europe", is to export the key to the regeneration of growth in France, Italy and Spain. Established among the highlights of market infrastructure institutions and strong R & D capabilities, the forces of skilled labor, the value-added industries, and. However, the supply and demand and business confidence remain all depressed because they continue to de-industrialize.
• In Arabic-speaking countries in the Mediterranean, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia are among the "Abtals." Significant natural resources and the significant growth in the middle class by the increasingly competitive labor costs and increased industrialization. The quality of infrastructure, including ports and maritime trade better infrastructure and the adoption of international standards of corporate finance at the heart of sustainable growth of intra-regional trade. Moroccan economic resilience underpins its potential as the original champion in the short term.
• Under the "gateway to Asia" are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey is best positioned to benefit from the recent rise in traditional Asian trade links. Among the highlights ongoing industrialization with the population growth of the middle class connected. Business opportunities in the private sector by a competitive labor market (Turkey) and driven stable funding for the GCC countries. Risks in this subarea include vulnerability to higher capital flows, the social and political impact (Turkey), and a strong dependence on energy prices (GCC).

Italy - Rebuilding for the future
Italy resists its second consecutive year of recession (-2.4% in 2012, 1.8% in 2013), a slight recovery in 2014 (+0.3%). Bankruptcies are up for the sixth consecutive year (7% in 2013) and is expected to stabilize in 2014. Domestic demand increased by 10% from its peak before the crisis, should continue its downward trend in 2014 (-14%). The parallel decrease in the availability of funds for non-financial corporations remains a challenge for the economic recovery.

For Italian companies are innovation, to revitalize cost competitiveness and exports significantly and sustainable growth. Italian exports are currently facing technical products mid-range compared to leaders of added value such as Germany and the United States, but the structure of Italian exports, one of the most diverse in the world - chemicals, electronics, energy, machinery, steel, textiles and vehicles .. The dynamics in each of these areas offer global demand for current and future opportunities. Further improve the skills and productivity drive serve Italian companies and the cost of labor and capacity building to reduce value-added service. The development of new supply and value chains can also transport exports. Already, through late payments and bankruptcies in major countries in question, the Italian company will ensure the best practices to compensate for the additional credit risk in emerging markets.

As the world economic power and trade routes continue to realignment, Italy capitalization export opportunities at a crossroads. Global dynamics opens up prospects for the Italian regions with high concentration of R & D and highly skilled workers, such as aerospace, financial and information technology. The textile value less is already one of the most competitive. Geographical location of the country resulted in the logistics and opportunities in the transport sector, in the face of growing demands harbor and airport in the Mediterranean.

"In practice, this means assuming that Italy is able to keep its market share in the Mediterranean three of its main sectors - cars $ 2bn/year; $ 9bn/year machinery, textile $ 3bn/year - opportunities for global exports in these sectors could be equated 500 cars, 30,000 tractors and about 3 million swimsuits to an additional 90,000 Fiat. "